Thoughts on Brennan Boesch

I know this move is getting mocked in some circles -- O how the mighty have fallen! The Yankees are picking up other team's rejects. The Yankees are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Whatever. Signing Boesch is a good gamble -- low risk, medium reward.

Boesch is still relatively young (he turns 28 on April 12) and at $1.5 million, relatively cheap. More importantly, he's finally the left-handed power bat the Yankees have needed as a stop-gap until Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira come off the D.L. in May. (Supposedly... I know Granderson will be back, but I think Teixeira's time table might be optimistic.) With so many right-handed outfielders in camp -- Juan Rivera, Matt Diaz, Melky Mesa, Ronnier Mustelier, Thomas Neal, Ben Francisco -- they desperately needed a lefty. With so many singles hitters in the lineup -- Ichiro Suzuki, Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and whoever is playing catcher -- they needed a power bat.

Boesch has had a strange career. He came up in April 2010, and after a 6-for-23 start, he flat-out raked -- .345/.378/.595 in May, .337/.400/.625 OPS in June. Then he completely fell apart -- .564 OPS in July, .531 OPS in August, .489 OPS in September. The obvious story is that pitchers adjusted to him, and he didn't adjust back. Or maybe it was his ridiculous .390 BAbip in May and June, which faded to .253 in July, .231 in August and .224 in September.

In 2011, he had one incredible month (.380/.437/.620 in June), again thanks to an unsustainable .422 BAbip. He had a good April (.319/.390/.451, .359 BAbip) and a mediocre July (.267/.305/.478, .279 BAbip), but was awful in May (.551 OPS) and August (.621 OPS), then missed all of September with a thumb injury.

Last year was a complete disaster, hitting .240/.286/.372. He had just one good month, July (.295/.329/.538, .328 BAbip), but the rest of the year he was putrid -- take out July and his numbers fall all the way to .230/.278/.339. His troubles were mostly due to his completely losing the strike zone, seeing his walk rate drop from a league-average 8% in '10 and '11 to an unacceptable 5% in 2012; he also saw his BB:K ratio fall from a mediocre .41 in '10-'11 to an awful .25 (26 BB, 104 K) last year. But Ks come with being a power hitter. The real problem is Boesch, when he struggles, hits a ton of ground outs. Last year, half of Boesch's balls in play were on the ground, with just 16 percent line drives and 34 percent in the air. That's unacceptable for a power hitter, and hopefully something Kevin Long can straighten out.

So, Boesch is the proverbial girl with the curl. When he was good, he was very good, but when he was bad he was horrid. The good Boesch -- the guy from those two months in '10, three months in '11, and one month in '12 -- is a Hall of Famer (.326/.378/.555 in 555 AB). The bad Boesch -- the rest of his career -- should be working at Sears (.213/.272/.317 in 807 AB).

Which Boesch is he? His minor league track record says we shouldn't bet on Cooperstown. Detroit's 3rd round pick out of UC-Berkeley in 2006, Boesch hit .291/.344/.435 as a 21-year-old in low A, but the next year slumped to .267/.297/.378 in A-ball. In '08 he moved up half a level to the Florida State League, and struggled again, hitting .249/.310/.379. The Tigers promoted him to Double-A in '09 anyway, and he showed a little life, hitting .275/.318/.510. They moved him up to Triple-A the next year and he went nuts, hitting .379/.455/.621 in 15 games, punching his ticket to the show, and he stayed on fire for the next two months. Outside of those hot three weeks in Triple-A, there's no sign he's a diamond in the rough.

But still... when Boesch is hot, he's really hot. We only need him for two months. Why not roll the dice? If he can be the good Boesch for those eight weeks, we've got an unbelievable bargain. If he's the bad Boesch for those eight weeks, well, we'll all be overjoyed to see Granderson again.

One more thing. Boesch's career numbers at Yankee Stadium, while in just 32 plate appearances, are encouraging: .367/.375/.533. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it's something. I just wish his career numbers against the Red Sox weren't so embarrassing (.181/.198/.301).

By the way... one of Boesch's pluses is that he is left-handed, so he can face righties while Rivera, Diaz, Francisco or whichever right-handed outfielder makes the team can hammer lefties. But wait a minute -- Boesch's career numbers vs righties (.250/.305/.412) are actually worse than his career numbers vs lefties (.286/.348/.420). Is he a reverse platoon player?

It looks like a fluke to me. Boesch's numbers vs lefties came in just 336 ABs, and are inflated by his ridiculous .337/.403/.548 in 104 ABs against them in 2010. Boesch put up a .421 BAbip against lefties that year. The next year, his numbers against lefties fell to .302/.356/.396 in 106 AB -- again, with an unsustainable .365 BAbip. Last year, they fell again to .230/.292/.333 in 126 AB, still with a lucky .314 BAbip. Overall, Boesch's career BAbip against lefties is an unrealistic .364, while it's a normal .278 against righties. In short, his numbers against lefties are a mirage. Play him against righties and hope for the best.

Finally... what will be his John Sterling home run call? I predict "It's a bash from Boesch!"

Bring back Alfonso Soriano?

Within minutes of getting the X-rays back, the buzz started that the Yankees would trade for Alfonso Soriano to be their new starting left fielder.

No, they will not.

Alfonso Soriano is making $18 million in 2013... and $18 million in 2014. Plus a $1 million bonus for each year.

If the Yankees were willing to pick up $38 million in salary, don't you think they could do better than Alfonso Soriano?

Soriano has a no-trade clause. Presumably he'd want some kind of compensation (as if $38 million isn't enough) for waiving it. After all, once Granderson gets back -- in just 10 weeks, remember -- Soriano will be reduced to a platoon role.

Speaking of which, Soriano is a right-handed hitter... which is all the Yankees have when it comes to in-house replacements: veterans Juan Rivera and Matt Diaz, already in camp; Melky Mesa and Zoilo Almonte, up-and-coming prospects; and Thomas Neal and Ronnier Mustelier, a couple of wildcards. All six are right-handed outfielders. They don't need another one.

Where do these rumors come from?

Where have you gone, Jorge Posada?

This week's signing of Casey Kotchman by the Indians (1 year, $3 million) probably didn't seem like a lost opportunity to most Yankee fans, but it most certainly was.

Remember, the Yankees still need a designated hitter to replace Jorge Posada (and Jesus Montero). But the good news is, since the Yankees brought back Andruw Jones to be half of the platoon (he hit .286/.384/.540 vsL last year), they only need a guy who can hit right-handed pitching, regardless of position or defensive capabilities. Easy, right?

Here are all the free agent batters still on the market, from CBS Sports. The highest OPS vs R of anybody on that list belongs to Derrek Lee (.260/.313/.470, .783), followed by Raul Ibanez (.256/.307/.440, .747) and Vlad Guerrero (.291/.315/.428, .743). Two ex-Yankees who have been brought up several times as options were even worse -- Johnny Damon (.255/.314/.401, .715) and Hideki Matsui (242/.318/.336, .654).

Posada's line against right-handed pitching last year? .269/.348/.466 (.814 OPS).

That's right. Now that Kotchman (vsR: .313/.394/.444, .838 OPS) is off the market, every remaining free agent batter had a lower OPS vs RHP than Posada did last year. Remember how Jorge was hammered last year as being washed up? We might be longing for that .814 OPS by May.

(The other option would be to use Jones as a full-time DH, but considering he hit .173/.303/.406 vsR, it's probably not a good idea.)

Yes, I know the Yankee line is "we'll use the DH as a half-day off." Sure, they can DH Alex Rodriguez once a week... but who plays third? The same guy who would play short or second -- Eduardo Nunez, who hit .259/.313/.360 vsR last year. If they DH one of the outfielders, we're back to Jones, or maybe Chris Dickerson (.237/.268/.368, .637 vsR last year).

They could try Jorge -- no, not Posada. Jorge Vazquez. The Mexican slugger has been in Scranton for two seasons now, hitting .270/.313/.526 in 2010 and .262/.314/.516 in 2011. Unfortunately, he's right-handed, and right-handed pitchers have held him to a .259/.318/.495 (.813 OPS) line. That's right around what Posada did, except Vazquez did it against Triple-A pitching. I'm all for giving Vazquez a chance, but realistically, his Scranton numbers don't indicate he's the answer.

The bottom line is every in-house option and every free agent put up weaker numbers than Posada did last year -- and it wasn't like Posada was crushing it last year.

So, what do they do? Sign Guerrero or Ibanez and hope they can turn back the clock for a year? Bring back Damon or Matsui and hope nostalgia translates into home runs? Promote Vazquez and hope he reminds us all of Shane Spencer?

Alas, hope is not a plan.

There is an X-factor -- 26-year-old centerfielder Yoenis Cespedes. As with all Cuban imports, he may not actually be 26. (I'm reminded of Brian Cashman's great line about Orlando Hernandez -- "he's 29 if he signs here, 32 if he signs anywhere else.") But a lot of people seem to think he'll be a 20/20 player with a decent batting average. The Yankees don't need a centerfielder -- they have two on the roster, with Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner -- but having a guy who can play every outfield position is always a useful guy to have.

But someone is probably going to offer Cespedes a lot of money to be a starting centerfielder, and the Yankees seem to have found fiscal responsibility this off-season. If they couldn't beat a $3 million offer for Kotchman -- or even Jim Thome at $1.5 million -- what makes you think they're going to sign Cespedes?

So get ready for Ibanez, who will have some electrifying home run calls from John Sterling (I suggest "Ibanez, you bomb yas!") but pile up the Ks and GDPs until he's released in July to make way for whoever they can get for Dellin Betances.

But they'll still be 10 games up on the Red Sox.

Yankees get busy

The Yankees had a quiet off-season... until last night.

It's easy to forget that they had re-signed C.C. Sabathia to a five-year contract expansion on October 31. But other than that... the highlight was getting Don Mattingly's kid, and apologies to Donnie, but that's not exactly a highlight.

But now... wow. Jesus Montero (and Hector Noesi) for Michael Pineda (and Jose Campos).

Then a few minutes later, they announce the signing of Hiroki Kuroda.

So now the Yankee rotation is: Sabathia, Pineda, Kuroda, Nova, and Phil Hughes/Freddy Garcia/A.J. Burnett. Assuming they don't just release Burnett and eat the $33 million (yes, $33 million) they owe him for 2012 and 2013.

So... good deal, bad deal?

Montero is one of the top hitting prospects of the game, even if he couldn't be an every day catcher (and he couldn't). I have no doubt he'll go on to have a very good career as a power-hitting 1B/DH. He's a lot to give up. But his path to first base is blocked by Mark Teixeira, and they need the DH slot as a way to give guys like Alex Rodriguez "half a day off." It wasn't an ideal situation.

Noesi is a pretty good arm as well... 4.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 22 BB, 45 K in 56.1 IP for his MLB debut last year, but a career 3.17 ERA, 1.10 WHIP with 71 BB, 365 K in 377.2 IP in six years in the minors.

I have mixed feelings about Pineda. First, the pros: He had an outstanding rookie year (3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 55 BB, 173 K in 171.0 IP). He's big (6 foot 7), he has a legit MLB stuff (mid-90s fastball that can touch 98 and what Dave Niehaus called a "nasty, diabolical slider"), and he hasn't been worked too hard by the Mariners -- he pitched 171 innings in the majors last year, up from 139.1 (in the minors) the year before.

But there are some things to worry about. He had a 3.03 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9 in the first half... 5.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9 in the second half. Was he hiding an injury? Was it a case of batters figuring him out the second time around the league? Was he fatigued? (There's been a lot of talk already that he's not the best conditioned athlete in the majors. Good thing we have C.C. to talk to him about that.)

And he posted a 1.95 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, .519 OPS allowed against teams with losing records... but 5.42 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .711 OPS allowed against teams that were .500 or better. That's... troubling.

To that end, in his one career start against the Red Sox: 7 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR in 4.1 IP. It's just one start, but still -- I'd rather be comforted by success in a small sample size and be able to magnamiously dismiss it, than allow my superstitious side to claim it's a harbinger of things to come. (For what it's worth, the Yankees touched him up for 3 runs on 3 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings the only time they faced him.)

I'd feel a lot better if they got back Felix Hernandez. Actually, I'm surprised the Mariners dealt Pineda (who won't even be arbitration eligible until 2014) instead of King Felix (who has $49 M and three years left on his contract). Surely they could have gotten another prospect or two from the Yankees (or somebody else) if they'd traded Hernandez instead of Pineda.

What about Campos? He's not exactly a throw-in, coming off an outstanding low-A season (2.32 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 13 BB, 85 K in 81.1 IP). He's supposedly 19 years old (born in Venezuela). He was ranked as one of the Mariners' top prospects, so what the heck. Impossible to tell what will happen with a guy this young, but his career is off to a good start.

Oh yeah... and Kuroda.

For some reason when people talk about all the Japanese League disasters (Irabu, Igawa, Matsuzaka), they forget about Kuroda, who has quietly had a good career for the Dodgers (3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 163 BB, 523 K in 699.0 IP over four seasons). Of course, he's about to turn 37 and he's only pitched in the National League (and Dodger Stadium at that).

However, I will point out that his career home/road splits are very close (3.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .661 OPS at home; .3.48, 1.21 WHIP, .687 OPS on the road)., and he hasn't been demolished in interleague play (4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 11 BB, 55 K in 68.2 IP). Like Pineda, he's faced the Red Sox just once, but at least he did a good job (7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 9 K).

So, bottom line. In the space of an hour, did the Yankees suddenly have a good off-season?

Kuroda is a no-brainer. Let's assume he comes to the A.L. and pitches at a league-average level for about 200 innings. No matter what, at $10 million for one year, and as a #4 starter, it's a low-risk signing. If he turns into Burnett, at least we're not stuck with him for the next five years.

As for the other deal... Of course you trade a 23-year-old DH for an 23-year-old ace -- you make that deal every day of the week. On the other hand, remember Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton? Pitchers are a tricky business. Five years ago, the top pitching prospects in baseball were Hughes, Homer Bailey and Andrew Miller. Of course, the #4 guy worked out -- Tim Lincecum.

There are reasons to worry about Pineda, and there's always a chance that in 30 years Pineda is remembered only as the answer to a trivia question ("who was traded for Hall of Famer Jesus Montero in 2012?"). But let's face it: If the Red Sox traded their top prospect for Pineda, I'd be pissed. It must be a good deal.

Too Much Moneyball

I'm sure they didn't mean to do this, but this video perfectly sums up the counter-argument to people who say the Yankees spend too much money on players.

"$400 million in ticket sales... $75 million from our cable network... $5 million in Derek Jeter bobbleheads. What are we going to do with all of it?"

"We could keep it?"

That's basically it. Yes, the Yankees spend more on their payroll than other other team. They also make more money than any other team. What do you want the Yankees to do with their money? Do you want the Steinbrenners to put it into their pocket? Or put it into their product?

Separated at birth?

Is it just me or...





Doesn't Francisco Cervelli look an awful lot like Jake Gyllenhall?

Signs of life?

Did you know... that Jorge Posada is hitting .230/.330/.460 this season vs RHP?

That's not good for a DH, but hey... it's not hopeless. Over his last 24 at-bats, he has 8 hits (3 doubles), for a .333 BA and .583 SLG. And add in seven walks over that span, and that's an OBP close to .500.

Maybe there's still some life left in the old man's bat, at least against right-handed pitching. Luckily, Andruw Jones is putting up an .861 OPS vs LHP.

Why 4th is 5th

It doesn't mean much, but sportswriters keep calling Ivan Nova the fourth starter and Freddy Garcia the fifth starter. But when the season opens, I think you'll see a rotation with Garcia followed by Nova.

This doesn't mean I think Garcia is better than Nova. I'm just remembering something that the sportswriters have apparently forgotten -- the Yankees in recent years have been very careful with young arms. The 24-year-old Nova pitched 187 innings last year, but just 42 of those came in the big leagues. By making Nova the #5, they can skip him periodically throughout the year, saving some innings for September.

The Yankees Get A Molina

Not Bengie (who is a free agent), not Jose (still with Toronto), not Yadier (still with the Cardinals)... but Gustavo!

Who?

Gustavo Molina is a 28-year-old right-handed hitting catcher from Venezuela. Alas, he's not related to the Molina brothers. (In fact, they're from Puerto Rico.) Sportswriter and Mets fan Howard Megdal sponsors Gustavo's page on Baseball Reference with an amusing note:

WARNING: This is not an authentic Catching Molina Brother.

Gustavo has had a bit of a Crash Davis type career, getting call-ups for a week or two at a time when the big-league catcher goes down. He was signed by the White Sox in 2000, but has just 41 at-bats in the majors (5 hits, 1 double) for four different organizations, including the Mets in '08 and the Red Sox last year. The Crash Davis comparisons stop when you look at his minor league numbers... he's hit .235/.295/.348 in 2574 ABs over 11 seasons. He appears to be a pretty good glove guy (wouldn't he have to be?), with a .988 career fielding percentage and a 39% CS%.

The Yankees signed him to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. With Jorge Posada, Russell Martin and Francisco Cervelli on the big-league roster, and presumably Jesus Montero waiting in Triple-A, I can't see him being anything more than an extra guy to handle pitchers in March.

Still... it's always nice to have a Molina.

A-Rod Is Now Greatest Yankee 3B Of All Time

While I was writing this with the help of the always awesome Baseball Reference, I discovered something that I sort of knew, but has been confirmed.

According to WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Alex Rodriguez is now the greatest Yankee third baseman of all time.

A-Rod didn't have a great year by his standards, though it was still a very good year (.270/.341/.506; his .847 OPS is 111 points below his career average; his 123 OPS+ is 22 points below his career average). According to WAR, he was 2.9 wins better than a replacement-level third baseman (3.6 wins better for his offense, but 0.7 wins worse for his defense).

A 2.9 WAR is considered a good season (it ranked 80th among all Major Leaguers this season), but it's the lowest of A-Rod's career since he became a full time player. He's been that good.

Anyway, A-Rod's 2.9 WAR this year pushed his career total to 101.9 and into 20th place all-time. This year he pulled ahead of Cap Anson (99.5); next on the list is Joe Morgan (103.5). (Everyone with at least 76 WAR is in the Hall of Fame.)

But he's only been a Yankee for seven seasons. As a Yankee, he's piled up 40.9 wins above replacement, ranking him 0.9 behind Phil Rizzuto for 17th on the list.

But those 2.9 WAR this season leap-frogged him over Don Mattingly (39.8), Gil McDougald (40.0) and Graig Nettles (40.6), who until this season had the most WAR of any third baseman in Yankee history. Now that title belongs to Alex Rodriguez.

He's still not a True Yankee, though.

What Is A True Yankee?

People used to say that Alex Rodriguez wouldn't be considered a True Yankee until he won a World Series. Well, he did that last year -- and had a .973 OPS in the World Series, and 18 RBIs and 7 HRs in 15 post-season games that year -- but he's still not considered a True Yankee.

He has now played more games as a Yankee (1,028) than he did as a Mariner (790); he has over 1,000 more plate appearances as a Yankee than he did as a Mariner. He has scored over 100 runs more as a Yankee than as a Mariner, has 171 more hits, 246 more RBIs, 79 more home runs as a Yankee. He has accumulated more Wins Above Replacement as a Yankee (40.9) than he did as a Mariner (37.1). His only World Series ring, so far, came as a Yankee. He has two MVPs as a Yankee, one as a Ranger, and surprisingly, none as a Mariner. He will undoubtedly go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee.

But will he ever be considered a True Yankee?

Alas, no.

The best way to become a True Yankee, of course, is to come up through the system (Derek Jeter, Don Mattingly, Mariano Rivera, Robinson Cano) and never leave*. If you do that, you're in.

*(Note: Some players can retain True Yankee status even if they leave the team. That's The Andy Pettitte Exception: If a True Yankee goes to another team, he can resume True Yankee status by not being too good with his new team, then returning to the Yankees and being good again. Hideki Matsui: The porch light is still on, my friend!)

A-Rod didn't come up through the system, but wait a minute -- there are some players considered True Yankees who didn't come up through the system either. That's The Paul O'Neill Clause: A player who improves dramatically once he puts on the pinstripes can assume True Yankee status. (See also Brosius, Scott. Nick Swisher appears to be on this track.) It helps if you arrive via trade as opposed to free agency, so we don't have to hear all that crap about how we just bought the highest-priced player. (Sorry, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia.)

The problem with A-Rod -- he was already a superstar before he got here. Like Roger Clemens or Reggie Jackson, if you're a marquee player before you come to New York, you'll never be good enough. Hit a home run? That's what why we brought you here. Strike out? You suck!

Oh, we'll cheer when you hit a home run -- but a few 0-for-4s and you're a bum again.

Sorry, Alex. I guess you'll just have to be happy with Cooperstown.